Earlier this week, a large part of the nation anxiously watched the disturbingly arrogant and ignorant presidential debate performance from Republican nominee Donald Trump. After blatantly admitting that he doesn’t pay federal taxes and that taking advantage of the 2007 housing crisis was nothing short of “good business” for him, many Democrats breathed a deep sigh of relief, as it seemed certain that the Trump train was finally derailing.
Prior to the debate American University professor Allan Lichtman stated that based on his well-rounded predicition system, Trump would be the most likely to win the election. The system has helped him accurately predict the outcome of every presidential election since 1984. The system consists of a series of true or false questions that have helped him predict the next president for over 30 years now, and unfortunately for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, his findings don’t exactly bode well for her.
The key to his system includes 13 true or false questions, where an answer of 'true' always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, which presently is the Democrats. These key factors range from third party to incumbency, social unrest to candidate charisma, and foregin policy success to the state of the economy. According to the system, if six or more of the 13 keys are false, the party currently in power will lose. At the moment, the Democrats are false on five keys, including party mandate, incumbency, policy change, lack of foreign policy success, and lack of candidate charisma.
The professor also went on to note that because Trump is a type of candidate that has never been seen before, this election is the most difficult for his system to predict. “We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along,” Lichtman said.
Still, there are many factors that Lichtman said could narrowly push Trump to victory, namely the unusual popularity of Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, who is polling at double-digits and potentially siphoning votes away from Clinton.
But, after Trump’s piss-poor debate performance on Monday night, Dr. Lichtman admitted that Trump had suffered a major setback on his path to victory. He claimed that although Trump had a golden opportunity to make himself appear as a “less dangerous candidate”, he instead went on the demean Hillary Clinton, dance around the truth and skirt around his looming tax situation. All of this has the professor questioning whether his system will be right this time around.
Lichtman’s prediction system accounts for popular vote, but does not account for the electoral college, which is what will likely decide who the next U.S. President is. In fact, some states have acted acted as predictors for both Democratic and Republican candidates. For example, no Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio, while no Democratic nominee has won the presidency without winning Maryland since 1948.
Contrary to Lichtman’s prediction system, the must-win states foreshadow a victory for Clinton, who is leading in all seven states that have most often voted for the electoral winner. These seven states consist of Ohio (34 times), Illinois (33), California (31), Nevada (31), New Hampshire (31), New York (30), and Wisconsin (30).
All in all, even though this prediction systems has been accurate so far, it must be taken with a grain of salt. As Dr. Lichtman says, this election is truly unlike any we’ve ever seen before, making it extremely difficult to predict who will win. In the meantime, all we can do is sit back, put some funny Snapchat filters on Trump’s face, and hope that our nation survives this peculiar and potentially dangerous election.
Oh yeah, and we can vote come election day.