The most respected financial analysts in the marijuana industry are optimistic about the future of the market, despite the potential issues stemming from Trump’s incoming administration. Legal marijuana sales have risen 30 percent to $6.7 billion, according to the latest report from Arcview Market Research. “The Green Rush” is a more appropriate name for the phenomenon than ever, as it fittingly describes the current roaring state of marijuana sales.
Arcview uses data compiled by BDS Analytics from dispensaries across North America, and according to them, North American sales are projected to continue growing to $20.2 billion by 2021. The market is projected to grow annually at a rate of 25 percent, outpacing the rate of growth during the dotcom boom of the 1990s and early 2000s, when the GDP grew at an astonishing rate of 22 percent compound annual growth. Analysts are comparing the green rush to the dotcom bubble, which birthed tech giants such as Google, Amazon and Facebook. Investors are no longer fearful of doubling down on marijuana, despite it being a virgin market.
"The only consumer industry categories I've seen reach $5 billion in annual spending and then post anything like 25% compound annual growth in the next five years are cable television (19%) in the 1990s and the broadband internet (29%) in the 2000s," ArcView's editor-in-chief, Tom Adams, told Forbes.
Part of the growth is thanks to California's successful effort to legalize recreational marijuana in 2016, which could cause a “sea change” in the industry. Massachusetts, Nevada and Maine also voted in favor of recreational marijuana, so investors all over the country are heavily interested in new technologies and innovations within the industry.
Arcview's CEO Troy Dayton is cautiously optimistic about the cannabis industry, despite the specter of uncertainty that dangles in front of us with a Trump cabinet that includes notoriously anti-marijuana Attorney General nominee Jeff Sessions. Dayton believes Trump will lay off of the states' right to legalize marijuana, and said,“It's one of the few things he has been consistent on.”
For now, pot startups are popping up everywhere and competition is fierce, and many of these them are aiming to become the next innovator within the industry. Incubators and startup conferences are helping blaze the way to stimulate this never before seen growth.
Arcview's full 200-page report will be available to the public in February.